Taylor G. Lunt

The dream is that prediction markets greatly outperform individual experts, but there's a limit on how much this can actually happen. The reason prediction markets aren't more useful is that you can only profit from a prediction market if gathering information is cheaper than the money you'd make from gathering it. Let's imagine I write down either "horse" or "donkey" on a slip of paper, and put t...

Many speculate about the possibility of an AI bubble by talking about past progress, the economy, OpenAI, Nvidia, and so on. But I don't see many people looking under the hood to examine whether the actual technology itself looks like it's going to continue to grow or flatline. Many now realize LLMs may be a dead end, but optimism persists that one clever tweak of the formula might get us to super...

I read If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (IABIED) and nodded along like everyone else, mostly agreeing with the argument but having minor quibbles about the details or the approach. However, I was recently thinking, "how in support of an AI pause am I, actually?" The authors of IABIED were pretty convincing, but I also know I have different estimates of AI timelines and p(doom) than the authors d...