Taylor G. Lunt

I wonder if AI is being trained to make easy-to-correct mistakes so it can fix them later. That is, it ends up trained to correct its previous message's mistake, then make another mistake, so it can correct it again in the next message. From my understanding of RL, the human/AI judge has to rank several policy model responses. These might be the first response in a conversation, or they might be t...

The dream is that prediction markets greatly outperform individual experts, but there's a limit on how much this can actually happen. The reason prediction markets aren't more useful is that you can only profit from a prediction market if gathering information is cheaper than the money you'd make from gathering it. Let's imagine I write down either "horse" or "donkey" on a slip of paper, and put t...

Many speculate about the possibility of an AI bubble by talking about past progress, the economy, OpenAI, Nvidia, and so on. But I don't see many people looking under the hood to examine whether the actual technology itself looks like it's going to continue to grow or flatline. Many now realize LLMs may be a dead end, but optimism persists that one clever tweak of the formula might get us to super...